The 2026 midterms in probability
Live prediction-market odds for every U.S. House district and Senate race, sourced from Kalshi and aggregated into chamber-level seat distributions. Click any district or state to see the underlying race.
435house seats
35senate seats
kalshi: 435/435 house · 35/35 senate · 2026-10-08T15:19Z
01 · expected outcomes — house — 435 seats
independent-races assumption · monte carlo with correlation in v2238vs198expected · D-leaning
chance of majorityD 100.0%·R 0.0%
±5.3 σ · 90% CI 229–247 D
majority 218
153
65
22
106
72
Safe D153
Likely D65
Lean D11
Tossup6
Lean R22
Likely R106
Safe R72
loading 119th-congress district boundaries…