The 2026 midterms in probability
Live prediction-market odds for every U.S. House district and Senate race, sourced from Kalshi and aggregated into chamber-level seat distributions. Click any district or state to see the underlying race.
435house seats
35senate seats
kalshi: 435/435 house · 35/35 senate · 2026-08-18T02:57Z
01 · expected outcomes — house — 435 seats
independent-races assumption · monte carlo with correlation in v2237vs202expected · D-leaning
chance of majorityD 100.0%·R 0.4%
±5.6 σ · 90% CI 228–247 D
majority 218
139
75
20
124
53
Safe D139
Likely D75
Lean D14
Tossup10
Lean R20
Likely R124
Safe R53
loading 119th-congress district boundaries…